Back to Toronto Maple Leafs road map to 93 points — and a playoff spot
Kevin McGran
Ninety-three points.
A Doug Gilmour season. That is the Holy Grail for the Maple Leafs, the magic number of points that ought to clinch them their first playoff spot of the post-lockout era.
Overall, it amounts to a record along the lines of 42-31-9 — a tad over .500 when counting overtime losses and shootout losses as losses.
Why 93 points? Well, the New York Rangers got the eighth seed in the East last year with that total. Montreal got eighth in 2009 with 93. (In ’06, Tampa got in with 92; in ’07; the Islanders made it with 92; in ’08, Boston needed 94; and in ’10, Montreal needed just 88.)
The Leafs already have 55 points. The website Sports Club Stats, which tracks teams’ chances of making the playoffs by analyzing the rest of the schedule for all teams, says the Leafs have a 72.4 per cent chance of making the playoffs.
Three other teams have 55 points in the East. Washington has an 80.5 per cent chance of making the playoffs, according to the site; Florida 74.6 per cent; and New Jersey 55.2.
While the Devils are officially placed eighth and the Leafs’ ninth because the Devils have a game in hand, the Leafs currently hold the first season-ending tie-break: The Leafs have 22 wins in regulation or overtime; the Devils 18.
So the Leafs need 38 points in their remaining 33 games — not an unreasonable expectation — to get to the magical 93. That’s a record of 17-12-4.
It won’t be easy. The Leafs have only 13 games of their remaining 33 against teams currently below them in the standings. That’s 40 per cent. To get this far, the Leafs played teams currently below them in the standings 22 out of 49 games, or 45 per cent of the time.
Here’s how they get there over the remaining 10 weeks of the season.
WEEK 1 (JAN. 29-FEB. 4) Opponents: Tuesday in Pittsburgh, Wednesday home to Penguins; Saturday in Ottawa.
Outlook: 1-1-1
Running total: 1-1-1
Skinny: The Penguins have won seven in a row so you have to favour the Penguins in the first game home after the all-star break. The Penguins mastery slips a bit in Toronto, but they prevail in extra time (they are 6-2 in extra time). The Leafs are hungry for a win in Ottawa, whose high times crashed to a halt on a recent road trip.
WEEK 2 (FEB. 5-FEB. 11) Opponents: Monday home to Oilers; Tuesday in Winnipeg; Thursday in Philadelphia; Saturday home to Canadiens.
Outlook: 2-1-1
Running total: 3-2-2
Skinny: Leafs have to take the home games against Edmonton and Montreal (two weaker opponents). They have to find a way to get a point on that time-zone travelling road trip in Winnipeg or Philadelphia. A win over Winnipeg would be huge, but a lot to ask in the back-to-back scenario.
WEEK 3 (FEB. 12-FEB. 19) Opponents: Tuesday in Calgary; Wednesday in Edmonton; Saturday in Vancouver
Outlook: 1-2-0
Running total: 4-4-2
Skinny: This will be their worst week of the second half. Calgary is the likely win here, the first of the road trip, even though the Leafs have lost their last six trips to Calgary. Playing back-to-back is not the Leafs’ strength, so the Edmonton game is iffy. Vancouver is a powerhouse at home on Hockey Night In Canada. The Leafs have lost nine in a row to the Canucks and haven’t won in Vancouver since 2003.
WEEK 4 (FEB. 20-FEB. 25) Opponents: Tuesday, home to the Devils; Thursday home to the Sharks; Saturday, home to the Capitals.
Outlook: 2-1-0
Running total: 6-5-2
Skinny: Beating New Jersey and Washington would have more meaning than beating a team from the Western Conference. Goalie Jonas Gustavsson has won his last three meetings against the Devils.
WEEK 5 (FEB. 26-MAR.3) Opponents: Tuesday home to Panthers; Wednesday in Chicago; Saturday in Montreal.
Outlook: 2-1-0:
Running total: 8-6-2
Skinny: Must beat Panthers and Habs. A loss to Chicago — a better team, a road game, and second of back-to-back — is understandable. That Florida game could have some crazy atmosphere for a Tuesday in February, if the standings remain this close.
WEEK 6 (MAR. 4-MAR. 10) Opponents: Tuesday home to Bruins; Wednesday in Pittsburgh; Saturday home to Flyers.
Outlook: 0-2-1
Running total: 8-8-3
Skinny: Three superior opponents. Three tough games. There isn’t a gimme among them. But if the Leafs manage to lose the first two that week, they’ll be up for that Saturday game against the Flyers. Even that will be tough, so an overtime loss is the safer prediction. The Leafs have just one win in their last seven games against the Flyers.
WEEK 7 (MAR. 11-MAR. 17) Opponents: Sunday at Washington, Tuesday at Florida, Thursday at Tampa, Tuesday at Ottawa.
Outlook: 2-2-0
Running total: 10-10-3
Skinny: Busy road trip. Leafs are a .500 road team. They’ll be tired for the game in Washington (5 p.m. start) after playing Philadelphia the night before. A sweep in the Sunshine State before arenas filled with Leafs fans on March break seems a must, followed likely by a lackluster game in Ottawa — their fifth in eight nights). The Senators will be coming off a game the night before against Montreal.
WEEK 8 (MAR. 18-MAR. 24) Opponents: Monday in Boston, Tuesday at home to Islanders; Friday in New Jersey; Saturday at home to Rangers.
Outlook: 2-1-1
Running total: 12-11-4
Skinny: That game in Boston is the last of the Leafs’s five-game road trip, their longest of the season. Another night of “Thank you, Kessel.” Then, the next night, the Leafs are home to the Isles and it will feel like a road game, so they might be lucky to get a point out of those two games. But they’ll have a few days off before they face New Jersey and New York Rangers back-to-back, hopefully picking up two wins. The Rangers will be tired. It will be their fifth game in eight nights.
WEEK 9 (MAR. 25-MAR. 31) Opponents: Tuesday at home to Hurricanes; Thursday at home to Flyers; Saturday at home to Sabres.
Outlook: 2-1-0
Running total: 14-12-4
Skinny: The last big home-stand and presumably the Hurricanes and Sabres have flown the white flag by trading away some veterans by the trade deadline. Anything less than four points would be a disappointment.
WEEK 10 (APR. 1-APR. 7) Opponents: Tuesday, at Buffalo; Thursday home to Lightning; Saturday at Montreal.
Outlook: 3-0-0
Running total: 17-12-4
Skinny: Finish strong. None of the three will have much to play for that last week, except draft position. That Montreal game could be a problem. If the Leafs are in a must-win situation for a playoff berth in Game 82, then all bets are off in the battle of historic rivals. Watch for a 6-5 final.
Toronto Maple Leafs road map to 93 points — and a playoff spot
January 30, 2012Kevin McGran
Toronto Maple Leafs' Clarke MacArthur (R) celebrates with his teammates Nazem Kadri (C) and Mikhail Grabovski (L) after MacArthur's overtime goal against the New York Islanders in their NHL ice hockey game in Uniondale, New York, January 24, 2012. The Maple Leafs won the game on the goal 4-3. What the Leafs really want to do is to celebrate their first playoff spot in the post-lockout era.
MIKE SEGAR/REUTERS A Doug Gilmour season. That is the Holy Grail for the Maple Leafs, the magic number of points that ought to clinch them their first playoff spot of the post-lockout era.
Overall, it amounts to a record along the lines of 42-31-9 — a tad over .500 when counting overtime losses and shootout losses as losses.
Why 93 points? Well, the New York Rangers got the eighth seed in the East last year with that total. Montreal got eighth in 2009 with 93. (In ’06, Tampa got in with 92; in ’07; the Islanders made it with 92; in ’08, Boston needed 94; and in ’10, Montreal needed just 88.)
The Leafs already have 55 points. The website Sports Club Stats, which tracks teams’ chances of making the playoffs by analyzing the rest of the schedule for all teams, says the Leafs have a 72.4 per cent chance of making the playoffs.
Three other teams have 55 points in the East. Washington has an 80.5 per cent chance of making the playoffs, according to the site; Florida 74.6 per cent; and New Jersey 55.2.
While the Devils are officially placed eighth and the Leafs’ ninth because the Devils have a game in hand, the Leafs currently hold the first season-ending tie-break: The Leafs have 22 wins in regulation or overtime; the Devils 18.
So the Leafs need 38 points in their remaining 33 games — not an unreasonable expectation — to get to the magical 93. That’s a record of 17-12-4.
It won’t be easy. The Leafs have only 13 games of their remaining 33 against teams currently below them in the standings. That’s 40 per cent. To get this far, the Leafs played teams currently below them in the standings 22 out of 49 games, or 45 per cent of the time.
Here’s how they get there over the remaining 10 weeks of the season.
WEEK 1 (JAN. 29-FEB. 4) Opponents: Tuesday in Pittsburgh, Wednesday home to Penguins; Saturday in Ottawa.
Outlook: 1-1-1
Running total: 1-1-1
Skinny: The Penguins have won seven in a row so you have to favour the Penguins in the first game home after the all-star break. The Penguins mastery slips a bit in Toronto, but they prevail in extra time (they are 6-2 in extra time). The Leafs are hungry for a win in Ottawa, whose high times crashed to a halt on a recent road trip.
WEEK 2 (FEB. 5-FEB. 11) Opponents: Monday home to Oilers; Tuesday in Winnipeg; Thursday in Philadelphia; Saturday home to Canadiens.
Outlook: 2-1-1
Running total: 3-2-2
Skinny: Leafs have to take the home games against Edmonton and Montreal (two weaker opponents). They have to find a way to get a point on that time-zone travelling road trip in Winnipeg or Philadelphia. A win over Winnipeg would be huge, but a lot to ask in the back-to-back scenario.
WEEK 3 (FEB. 12-FEB. 19) Opponents: Tuesday in Calgary; Wednesday in Edmonton; Saturday in Vancouver
Outlook: 1-2-0
Running total: 4-4-2
Skinny: This will be their worst week of the second half. Calgary is the likely win here, the first of the road trip, even though the Leafs have lost their last six trips to Calgary. Playing back-to-back is not the Leafs’ strength, so the Edmonton game is iffy. Vancouver is a powerhouse at home on Hockey Night In Canada. The Leafs have lost nine in a row to the Canucks and haven’t won in Vancouver since 2003.
WEEK 4 (FEB. 20-FEB. 25) Opponents: Tuesday, home to the Devils; Thursday home to the Sharks; Saturday, home to the Capitals.
Outlook: 2-1-0
Running total: 6-5-2
Skinny: Beating New Jersey and Washington would have more meaning than beating a team from the Western Conference. Goalie Jonas Gustavsson has won his last three meetings against the Devils.
WEEK 5 (FEB. 26-MAR.3) Opponents: Tuesday home to Panthers; Wednesday in Chicago; Saturday in Montreal.
Outlook: 2-1-0:
Running total: 8-6-2
Skinny: Must beat Panthers and Habs. A loss to Chicago — a better team, a road game, and second of back-to-back — is understandable. That Florida game could have some crazy atmosphere for a Tuesday in February, if the standings remain this close.
WEEK 6 (MAR. 4-MAR. 10) Opponents: Tuesday home to Bruins; Wednesday in Pittsburgh; Saturday home to Flyers.
Outlook: 0-2-1
Running total: 8-8-3
Skinny: Three superior opponents. Three tough games. There isn’t a gimme among them. But if the Leafs manage to lose the first two that week, they’ll be up for that Saturday game against the Flyers. Even that will be tough, so an overtime loss is the safer prediction. The Leafs have just one win in their last seven games against the Flyers.
WEEK 7 (MAR. 11-MAR. 17) Opponents: Sunday at Washington, Tuesday at Florida, Thursday at Tampa, Tuesday at Ottawa.
Outlook: 2-2-0
Running total: 10-10-3
Skinny: Busy road trip. Leafs are a .500 road team. They’ll be tired for the game in Washington (5 p.m. start) after playing Philadelphia the night before. A sweep in the Sunshine State before arenas filled with Leafs fans on March break seems a must, followed likely by a lackluster game in Ottawa — their fifth in eight nights). The Senators will be coming off a game the night before against Montreal.
WEEK 8 (MAR. 18-MAR. 24) Opponents: Monday in Boston, Tuesday at home to Islanders; Friday in New Jersey; Saturday at home to Rangers.
Outlook: 2-1-1
Running total: 12-11-4
Skinny: That game in Boston is the last of the Leafs’s five-game road trip, their longest of the season. Another night of “Thank you, Kessel.” Then, the next night, the Leafs are home to the Isles and it will feel like a road game, so they might be lucky to get a point out of those two games. But they’ll have a few days off before they face New Jersey and New York Rangers back-to-back, hopefully picking up two wins. The Rangers will be tired. It will be their fifth game in eight nights.
WEEK 9 (MAR. 25-MAR. 31) Opponents: Tuesday at home to Hurricanes; Thursday at home to Flyers; Saturday at home to Sabres.
Outlook: 2-1-0
Running total: 14-12-4
Skinny: The last big home-stand and presumably the Hurricanes and Sabres have flown the white flag by trading away some veterans by the trade deadline. Anything less than four points would be a disappointment.
WEEK 10 (APR. 1-APR. 7) Opponents: Tuesday, at Buffalo; Thursday home to Lightning; Saturday at Montreal.
Outlook: 3-0-0
Running total: 17-12-4
Skinny: Finish strong. None of the three will have much to play for that last week, except draft position. That Montreal game could be a problem. If the Leafs are in a must-win situation for a playoff berth in Game 82, then all bets are off in the battle of historic rivals. Watch for a 6-5 final.
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